CharlieIn 2017, I had the opportunity to deliver a townhall keynote to the management of PSA Corp, the world’s largest port operator and owner of the busiest transshipment container port. The keynote was titled “The Incredible Rise of the Intelligence Economy”, and for nostalgia’s sake, I have named this newsletter issue the same.
What was presented then was ahead of its time. Yet, it remains perfectly pertinent today because that time is now: unfolding page by page, chapter by chapter, broadly in line with my predictions.
In fact, I first wrote about the AI-centric 4.0 model in 2013 (“What Singaporeans must know about the Innovation Economy”), well before the World Economic Forum coined the term 4th Industrial Revolution in 2016. At that time, I pondered over calling it the “Intelligence” Economy but chose “Innovation” instead because, mind you, Artificial Intelligence was on no one’s mind in 2013. Business readers wouldn’t want to read what sounds remotely like sci-fi in a business publication.
From Mechanical (1.0) to Intelligence Economy (4.0)
This diagram is self-explanatory, but two areas require special elaboration.
First: Two Paradigms in Four Revolutions
First, the four revolutions must be paired into two paradigms. Each consists of an opening and closing stage, akin to the child and adult versions of the same person.
The “Muscle Power Paradigm” disrupted muscle power of men and beasts of burden. Similarly, the ages of microprocessors and artificial intelligence form the complete “Mind Power Paradigm”.
Second: Adult Revolutions → Real Gamechangers
Second, the child revolutions are foundational to the adult revolutions. They laid the groundwork for the exponential take-off at the bend of the curve.
In the 1st Industrial Revolution (child), the steam engine and other foundational technologies only provided a marginal uplift. In all measures of society, whether it is world population, industrial production, wealth creation or human welfare, the real boom happened in the 2nd revolution (adult).
Today, a worker in the Industrial Economy could be easily 5–10x more productive than one in the Mechanical Economy.
We are now 60–70 years since the advent of semiconductors and into the 3rd revolution (child). However, economists generally give no more than a meagre 1% estimate to the annual productivity gains from information technologies. That is poised to change with the 4th revolution (adult).
Ask yourself: how much more productive are you and how much more value do you create with ChatGPT as your collaborative partner? 5%, 10%, 50% even 100%? Now apply that to billions of people using it every day.
From this perspective, it is easy to understand why many experts equate artificial intelligence’s impact to that of electricity. They are the defining general purpose technology of their paradigm.
My key takeaway is this. For the people who think they have seen this movie before, they haven’t. As the bend of the curve suggests, we are suddenly shifting from 1st to 2nd, 3rd, 4th and, before you know it, 5th gear. From runway acceleration to vertical take-off. AI will create multiple times the improvements and impact of the information technologies from the past half century or so.
Miss it and you are out of the game.
Intelligence Symphonies will be able to ride on the curve. Can your company?
Originally published in Charlie Ang's Intelligent Reinvention Memo newsletter on LinkedIn (Issue 5).
Charlie Ang is an Intelligent Reinvention Strategist, corporate futurist and AI keynote speaker based in Singapore and speaking worldwide. He helps organisations and leaders reinvent, rewire and retool for the Age of Intelligence, and has been featured by the BBC, Financial Times, National Geographic and CNA.